Four years ago, Wales followed a similar path to the one they are treading now as they qualified for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar via the play-offs.
Then it was a 2-1 semi-final victory over Austria, and then a nerve-wracking, emotional 1-0 win over Ukraine in the play-off final. For both matches, Wales enjoyed home advantage in Cardiff, and in 2026, that pathway remains the same – home advantage.
Apart from the joy and pride the current Wales cohort will take from qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, if Wales do succeed in the play-offs, it will mark a major moment in the country’s football history. Never before have they made it to back-to-back World Cups, and if they do qualify, it will mark a decade of consistent qualification for major tournaments with the Euros in 2016 and 2020, along with the 2022 World Cup.
Wales will also host the opening game of Euro 2028, along with five other matches in Cardiff. Not a bad return over a dozen years for a nation of just three million people.
Wilson to be a difference-maker against Bosnia?
Harry Wilson has had seven goal involvements in his last five Wales games
But Wales have to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina first, and that won’t be easy. How they overcome Bosnia may well come down to a moment of magic, and from a Welsh perspective, that bit of magic could come from one of the Premier League’s standout players this season in Harry Wilson.
The 29-year-old has been excellent for Fulham and sensational for Wales. For country, if Wilson doesn’t score, he’s supplying an assist and often doing both. His last five games for Wales has seen him score five goals and provide two assists.
Don’t say it too loudly, but Wales are coping without Gareth Bale, and it’s Wilson who has stepped up.
Wales head coach Craig Bellamy believes Wilson has just naturally progressed as a hugely talented player.
“He’s just an exceptionally good player,” Bellamy said. “Sometimes it just clicks for a player as well. The older you get, usually, not just as a footballer but as a person, the wiser you become, the smarter you become.
“We’re definitely seeing signs of that on the football pitch. His football IQ is very, very high. His positioning, how he’s able to take up and his reading of the game, his understanding of the game.
“I see he has definitely gone on to another level, which is allowing him more time, more space, and he’s finding himself in the areas where he can do the most damage to the opposition team and with his ability, we’re seeing the rewards of that.”
If Wales and Wilson can get him into the right positions to influence the game, then Bosnia will face challenges.
Clearly, due to his form in the Premier League and for Wales, Wilson will be closely watched, and doubtless some of the darker arts of defending might be employed to stop him by Bosnia. It’s how Wilson copes with that attention, and as his manager is a great believer in – stay patient, opportunities will come, it’s just about when they present to be able to execute. For that, you sense that the crowd inside the Cardiff City Stadium will require patience themselves and believe that as an attacking threat, you only need to get lucky once.
The match won’t be a 7-1 rout like the last time Wales played and beat North Macedonia, perhaps a tighter affair on the scoreline.
The stat that shows Bellamy’s imprint
While the scoreline may be close, what Bellamy will be insistent on is Wales’ domination of possession, especially at home. It’s not that Bellamy wants his teams to play like Manchester City or Barcelona at their pomp – he doesn’t expect that – but he does expect his players to work incredibly hard without the ball.
Bellamy loves profiling players and loves useful data, and there’s one stat he’s very proud of. Among European nations, Wales are ranked No 1 at winning the ball back within five seconds of losing it. That’s what Bellamy demands, and as he points out, you can’t do much without the ball, so why not get hold of it as quickly as you can.
Over the 20 months that Bellamy has been in charge of Wales, he wanted to develop a unique identity, a USP for Wales, and domination of the ball is something that is very much standing out for them.
Wales played two epic matches against a top-tier nation in Belgium during the qualification campaign, and yes, they were defeats, but great games that swung both ways – 4-3 away, 4-2 at home.
Wales averaged 64 per cent possession over those two games. Against Bosnia, do not be surprised if the ball possession is similarly high. Wales won’t rest or take a breather if Bosnia have the ball, they’ll go hunting for it, and very quickly, otherwise their head coach might have a few words to say!
Ampadu given Wales armband
Ethan Ampadu will captain Wales on Thursday
On the pitch, Bellamy needs leaders, as with many good club and country teams, you can point not just to one leader, but several players who, at a given point in a game, can provide that moment of calm, clarity, and almost statesmanlike authority.
In Ethan Ampadu, perhaps Wales have a long-term replacement for both Ben Davies and Aaron Ramsey. Ampadu, at 25, has led Leeds United in the Premier League – and he’s the captain.
The player with that stature is now once again the captain of Wales, but he is naturally self-deprecating when asked about his role as a captain.
He said: “I’d like to think that if I was wearing the armband or not, I’d still play the same way, I’d still try and lead the same way, I don’t think anything changes.
“I think maybe you might have to speak to the referee a little bit more, but in terms of actually playing and trying to lead it’s going to be the same as I’ve done previously playing under different captains.”
Young he may still be, but he’s well in excess of 50 caps for Wales and has seen action in three of the top five European leagues: Premier League, Bundesliga and Serie A. He oozes experience. He’s captained Wales before and does so again against Bosnia.
Will Wales be celebrating a World Cup play-off semi-final against Bosnia-Herzegovina on Thursday?
Often, the role of the captain can be played down, but it’s crucial because it’s in those moments of crisis that the person entrusted with the armband can excel, and while Wales and Bellamy will plan and hope to eliminate any crisis moments if such a moment arises, Ampadu is a figurehead who can step up with authority. Whether that’s how he speaks and perhaps influences the referee to organise and keep his team-mates calm and focused can be a defining difference. Leeds clearly think they have special talent, and Wales wholeheartedly agree.
If anyone is in any doubt about what is expected of Wales under Bellamy then perhaps he subtlety slipped it in before the play-offs have even begun – saying Wales should be at the World Cup this summer, that the World Cup would be better for it if Wales were there in terms of what his team would bring and the no doubt tens of thousands of Welsh fans who’d make it by hook or by crook to the tournament.
Bellamy knows he can’t get ahead of himself; it’s Bosnia first and foremost, but his belief in his players and team is sky-high, and as far as he is concerned, they’re at a level to survive and thrive at a World Cup.
