After an exciting first weekend of action, the men’s basketball tournament field has been whittled down to just 16 teams. Three of the four No. 1 seeds (Duke, Arizona and Michigan) are still in competition, while top-seeded Florida got knocked out after a single-point victory by No. 9-seeded Iowa.
Ahead of the next set of games, our college basketball betting analysts, researchers and editors reveal their favorite early bets since the Round of 16 was set, including both picks in this upcoming round as well as some futures for further on down the road in the tournament. And, as you’ll see, our experts can sometimes disagree — for good reasons. Hey, that’s why they play the games.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds accurate at time of publish and are subject to change.
(5) St. John’s (+6.5) over (1) Duke
Mark Zinno (analyst): In just the third season under Rick Pitino, the Red Storm have advanced to the round of 16, the first time since 1999. Surprisingly enough, they are here because of their defense, which is ranked in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency for the first time since their last round-of-16 appearance. The Johnnies can match Duke defensively and their athleticism can contain Duke’s Cameron Boozer. They held Kansas star Darryn Peterson to 5-of-15 shooting. I see a similar result here for Boozer.
The total for this game is 142.5. Duke has seen just 10 totals this low all season. They’ve only gone over this number twice — and one of them was because they scored 100 points against Notre Dame. The correlation here is that if Duke is limited in scoring, that favors the Johnnies here as a three-possession underdog. This is a game I think St. John’s can win outright, so it’s worth it to sprinkle a little on the money line as well.
(1) Duke (-6.5) over (5) St. John’s
Kevin Pulsifer (researcher): Were we supposed to be impressed by St. John’s after the Red Storm finally earned their first top-30 KenPom win other than UConn (who they only beat at home and lost to on the road)? The Jayhawks left the Johnnies open behind the arc all night and, outside of Bryce Hopkins, it was miss after miss.
Duke’s top-ranked defense forces offenses to use more time and shoot more threes than 90% of opponents, which doesn’t bode well for a St. John’s offense that scores 0.7 points/possession on late shot-clock possessions (including an abysmal 20% on 3-pt FG). As defensive leaders on the second-tallest team in D1, Dame Sarr and Patrick Ngongba II are both elite on-ball defenders that can eliminate Hopkins and Zuby Ejiofor from the gameplan without fouling. If the game is close late, the likes of Boozer and Isaiah Evans are solid enough at the line to extend the lead and cover.
(3) Illinois (+2.5) over (2) Houston
Tyler Fulghum (analyst): In a matchup of a dynamic offense (Illinois) versus a tenacious defense (Houston), I’ll side with the offense. Brad Underwood’s team has more versatile ways to score. They’ve already beaten their first two opponents in the tournament by an average of 28.0 PPG.
Futures
(1) Michigan Wolverines to make Final Four (-145)
Zinno: It’s not like the Wolverines needed a whole lot of help to get to the Final Four before the first ball tipped off, but they got it anyway. Michigan’s elite defensive play will be enough to take care of Alabama’s inconsistency and then they get the winner of Tennessee/Iowa State. Both of those teams are bad matchups for a Wolverines offense that is much more efficient than both of them.
(3) Illinois to make the Final Four (+210)
Pulsifer: Houston is listed close to even money to win the region, despite only being favored against the Illini by 2.5 in the round of 16. The Cougars went 1-6 in their seven toughest games this season according to ESPN Analytics (29-0 in their 29 easiest games), which is sometimes a trend worth following when a team puts out consistent effort game-to-game but is unable to reach an extra gear.
Meanwhile, Illinois went 3-3 in its six toughest games and has the height to compete down low with Houston, plus similar star power at guard. A round of 8 matchup with a lesser Big Ten team shouldn’t provide too much of an issue either as the Illini won both at Nebraska and at Iowa this season. Additionally, they have had just one regulation loss over the last 100 days (to Michigan).
