Before the NFL free agency period, there were 11 teams which had opened at 10.5 wins, the highest number on the board at the time. With a fair amount of player movement now behind us — before the draft in late April, of course — the Baltimore Ravens and now hold the top number at 11.5 wins.
The Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers are each at 10.5 wins. The Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins, both of whom having moved on from last year’s starting quarterbacks, are tied for the lowest total with 4.5.
Which teams will go over or under their wins total? Betting analysts Matt Bowen, Joe Fortenbaugh, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder react to the odds and offer their best bets, and Mike Clay provides his projections for the coming season.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Bowen: Landing Trey Hendrickson after backing out of the trade for Maxx Crosby following a failed physical is a win for the Ravens. I’m a big believer in new head coach Jesse Minter, too. And we know Baltimore has the talent (at critical positions) to push for an AFC North title. But the team did lose key players via free agency, and that 11.5 win total is tied for the highest in the league with the Los Angeles Rams. This is still a playoff team, but I’m betting the under here.
Clay’s projection: 11.2 wins
Loza: The Panthers put together an improbable ascent in 2025, making the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and improving on a 5-12 record from the prior season. Dan Morgan has used the offseason to further propel the team’s turnaround, adding depth to the offensive line, reuniting Bryce Young with former college teammate John Metchie and significantly upgrading the defense. The boost in talent and reps offers Carolina the opportunity to, at the very least, repeal last year’s eight-win performance, if not flirt with double-digit dubs.
Clay’s projection: 7.3 wins
Bowen: This feels like a good number for the Bears in Ben Johnson’s second season. Sure, the team can still add more depth and talent at the left tackle spot, and I would expect GM Ryan Poles to target a pass rusher in the draft. But with the club’s current roster, and the coaching in Chicago, we should see even more player development. And that includes another jump for quarterback Caleb Williams. Take the Bears to hit that 10-win mark.
Clay’s projection: 9.4 wins
Fortenbaugh: A 14-3 record culminating in a trip to the AFC Championship game would normally be cause for bullish estimates in the build-up to the ensuing campaign. But color me skeptical when it comes to Denver’s 2026 outlook, due to a series of red flags. For starters, Sean Payton’s crew finished the regular season with an 11-2 record in one-score games. If there’s anything we learned from the 2025 Kansas City Chiefs, it’s that one-score performance regression can be a real pain in the cheeks. Additionally, the Broncos were the eighth-healthiest team in the NFL last season (good luck maintaining that pace) and boast a quarterback who, at best, could be considered average, in my opinion (T-14 in QBR). Denver will be more than competent, but I don’t see double-digit wins.
Clay’s projection: 10.5 wins
Moody: The Lions enter 2026 with concerns following a disappointing 2025 season that ended without a playoff berth. Injuries once again exposed depth issues in Detroit’s secondary, while interior offensive line woes forced Jared Goff into quicker throws and limited offensive flexibility. Detroit made few upgrades along the offensive line in free agency, and defensive departures only increase the risk of another disappointing season, even with a softer schedule in 2026.
Clay’s projection: 11.3 wins
Solak: The Packers let a ton of talent out of the building this offseason. Not one of Rasheed Walker, Elgton Jenkins, Colby Wooden, Quay Walker, Romeo Doubs, Rashan Gary or Nate Hobbs is an irreplaceable blue-chip player, but those departures add up to thousands of snaps. If Micah Parsons isn’t at full speed by Week 1, this defense is sorely lacking impactful talent, and offensive line shuffling is always reason for concern. In a tough division, I’ll take the under on 10.5 wins.
Clay’s projection: 9.2 wins
Maldonado: The case for the over starts with the floor this roster has built. The defense is legit, finishing the 2025 season with the No. 1 pass rush by pressure, top-tier coverage grades and a secondary that now adds S Reed Blankenship to a group that already included CB Derek Stingley Jr., CB Kamari Lassiter and S Jalen Pitre. That unit alone keeps Houston in games. Even with the offense grading 25th in games with C.J. Stroud under center and the QB missing a few games, the Texans still went 12-5. With Stroud healthy, the offense should at least remain functional with Nico Collins as the clear WR1 and some modest line improvement with OT Braden Smith. The plus-17 turnover margin will likely regress, but so far, Houston still profiles as a 10- or 11-win team in a conference where defensive consistency matters.
Clay’s projection: 9.4 wins
Walder: I’m buying in on the Kyler Murray-era Vikings. It really isn’t this simple, but two years ago the Vikings won 14 games with average quarterback play. A year ago, it was nine with bad quarterback play. Murray is underrated, just a year removed from finishing ninth in QBR, and now he gets to throw to Justin Jefferson. And while the roster isn’t perfect, I’m not going to doubt the coaches on either side of the ball, because both Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores have proven an ability to get more out of their players than most.
Clay’s projection: 8.8 wins
