The final quartet of teams are set in the 2026 men’s tournament, as we’re down to UConn, Illinois, Michigan and Arizona. One of these teams will cut down the nets, but before we get there, they have to make it through the semifinals on Saturday night.
No. 3 Illinois opened up as a 2.5-point favorite over No. 2 UConn in the first semifinal at 6:09 p.m., while No. 1 Michigan is a slight 1.5-point favorite over fellow No. 1 Arizona in the nightcap at 8:49 p.m.
Currently, Arizona and Michigan are tied atop the futures board to win the national championship.
Here is our college basketball analyst’s favorite bet for the semifinal round.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds accurate at time of publish and are subject to change.
(1) Michigan and (1) Arizona first half under 72.5
Mark Zinno (analyst): These are the two best defenses in the country. They are also two of the top offenses in the country. But here’s why I’m willing to look to an under. I’m using the same logic I used for my Duke/UConn first-half play. The only other reference point we have for Michigan against a defense this good was against Duke, in a game that ended 68-63, and the pregame total there was 151.5.
The only reference point we have for Arizona is two matchups against Houston. The regular-season matchup total was 142.5 and the Big 12 tournament final was 138.5. We are at 157.5 here for this game, and it feels too high for me.
The first half between Michigan and Duke totaled just 68 points. The regular-season matchup between Arizona and Houston featured just 67 points in the opening half. In the Big 12 final, they scored 80 in the first half, but both teams were playing their third game in three days, and it’s natural to expect that defense would lag in that spot.
These teams will have six days of preparation for each other, which should keep the defenses sharper at the outset. Add in the fact that this game is at Lucas Oil Stadium and the sightlines will be different. There have been three other Final Fours in this venue. In 2021, both national semifinal totals were 145.5 and 134. In 2015, the semifinal totals were 131 and 140. Lastly in 2010, the totals were 136.5 and 128. Recognizing that the opponents were all different and the game itself is higher scoring now than even five years ago, some rise in the total is expected. I still think we have enough here to expect that defense will rule the day at the outset.
