Big picture: Series on the line
Three games in, including one at Eden Park and its short boundaries, and we’re yet to see a high-scoring match in this series.
Seamers from both teams have done the bulk of the damage so far, particularly early on. Only twice in the six innings has a team batted out a powerplay without losing a wicket. With early and regular wickets becoming a bit of a theme, a deviation from it could make the difference with the series on the line.
South Africa, 2-1 down in the five-match series, cannot afford a loss. They will look for an inspired performance like the one they produced in the first game. Batting-wise, their openers are getting stuck or falling early. With the middle order very raw, they’ll hope for better from their top two.
At the other end, New Zealand are coming off a comprehensive win set up by their bowlers and finished off in style by their batters. Devon Conway and Tom Latham making a fifty each in successive games will boost a side that’s missing its first-XI players. They bat deep and have six bowling options, leaving them well placed to take the series with a game to spare.
New Zealand WLLWW (last five completed T20Is, most recent first)
South Africa WLWLL
In the spotlight: Ben Sears and Gerald Coetzee
Ben Sears has found continued success in this series by keeping the ball in and around the stumps. He can bang the ball short and hurry batters on the pull, as was the case with Tony de Zorzi in the last game, or bowl full and straight like he did to dismiss Keshav Maharaj. He is a threat across phases.
Gerald Coetzee’s new-ball skills have come to the fore in this series. He has found swing regularly and kept batters in check. He doesn’t mind mixing it up with the odd slower ball or yorker early in the innings. He has missed his lines on the odd occasion leading to wides, and could be even more dangerous if he can plug that tendency.
Team News: Latham to lead NZ
Mitchell Santner hands over the captaincy to Latham for the remainder of the series. Lockie Ferguson and Devon Conway have been relieved of duty as well, which opens up spots for Northern Brave batter Katene Clark to make his debut, and for some shake-up in the seam-bowling unit.
New Zealand (probable): 1 Tom Latham (capt & wk), 2 Katene Clark, 3 Tim Robinson, 4 Nick Kelly, 5 Bevon Jacobs, 6 James Neesham, 7 Cole McConchie, 8 Josh Clarkson/Nathan Smith, 9 Kyle Jamieson, 10 Ben Sears, 11 Jayden Lennox/Zak Foulkes.
With Lutho Sipamla having had a bad night in the last game, South Africa might be tempted to go back to Ottneil Baartman.
South Africa (probable): 1 Tony de Zorzi, 2 Wiaan Mulder, 3 Connor Esterhuizen (wk), 4 Rubin Hermann, 5 Jason Smith, 6 Dian Forrester, 7 George Linde, 8 Gerald Coetzee, 9 Keshav Maharaj (capt), 10 Nqobani Mokoena, 11 Ottneil Baartman
Pitch and Conditions: Win toss and chase?
The average first-innings score at the Sky Stadium from the last five T20Is is 159. However, there are two scores of 200-plus peppered in there. The last three games at the venue have been won by the team chasing. The weather in Wellington is set to be on the cooler side with the temperature around 15 degrees celsius, with no chance of rain. There’s always wind though.
