England are still in a commanding position to secure a fifth Champions League place for the 2026/27 campaign – despite a disappointing set of results in the last-16 stage.
Four out of the six Premier League sides – Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham Hotspur – were eliminated on Tuesday and Wednesday night, leaving just Arsenal and Liverpool left in the competition.
But England is still comfortably on top of the UEFA coefficient table, which measures how each country’s clubs perform across the three European competitions.
The top two at the end of the campaign are awarded extra Champions League places, known as European Performance Spots. England secured one of the spots last season, along with Spain.
Here is why a repeat now looks likely for 2026/27.
How does the coefficient table work?
Each nation is awarded points based on the performance of their clubs in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.
Its points totals are then divided by the number of clubs it has competing in European competition, with nations ranked in the table by their average scores.
Wins are worth two coefficient points, draws are worth one, and defeats are worth none.
Additionally, bonus points are awarded according to finishing positions in the league phase tables, and progress through each knockout round.
The bonus points are far higher in the Champions League compared to the other two competitions.
The team finishing top of the Champions League phase table earns 12 bonus points, compared to six for the team finishing top of the Europa League league phase table, and four for the team finishing top of the Conference League league phase table.
Coefficient table as it stands
Despite two thirds of England’s Champions League teams being eliminated, England still has a healthy lead at the top of the coefficient table.
England is five coefficient points ahead of third-placed Germany, who have four teams left in European competition. England still has five teams remaining, ahead of Thursday night’s European action.
Two German sides – Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart – have to overturn first-leg defeats at home in order to reach the Europa League quarter-finals.
And England also sits four points ahead of second-placed Spain. England is also five points ahead of fourth-placed Portugal, but fifth-placed Italy cannot overtake England in the rankings now, with every single Serie A team now eliminated from the Champions League.
Why are England still in a good position despite all the eliminations?
Part of the reason England still sits in a comfortable position is due to the knockout stage draws.
Closest coefficient rival, Spain, is weakened by the fact that Barcelona and Atletico Madrid face each other in the quarter-finals – so one LaLiga team will definitely be eliminated.
The other Spanish team in the Champions League – Real Madrid – faces a German side in Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals. Looking at the coefficient table, that also suits England’s case.
In the Europa League, Real Betis and Celta Vigo are set to meet in the semi-final stage, if both those teams even get that far, which also boosts England – who can still have an all-English Champions League final between Arsenal and Liverpool.
England’s chances of keeping Portugal at bay are also in its own hands, should Arsenal beat Sporting CP in the Champions League quarter-finals.
Should Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest reach the Europa League final, that also means they would have fared better than FC Porto, who are on their side of the draw.
Could it still fall apart for England?
Yes, England are not mathematically assured of a fifth Champions League place – and history has shown how it can easily fall apart.
In the 2023/24 season, England was – like this year – destined for an extra Champions League place but then Arsenal, Manchester City and West Ham were all knocked out of their European quarter-finals, which ended up costing England.
So there will still be work for Arsenal, Liverpool and the remaining Europa and Conference League teams to do to get that extra spot at Europe’s top table.
Which Premier League club could profit?
Liverpool are currently fifth in the Premier League, one point ahead of sixth-placed Chelsea and four ahead of seventh-placed Brentford.
According to Opta, the top two – Arsenal, Manchester City – have a 100 per cent chance of finishing in the top five, while Manchester United and Aston Villa are highly likely to finish in those slots.
Liverpool still have 62.4 per cent chance, which contrasts massively to Chelsea’s chances, which sit at 46.7 per cent. Brentford, Newcastle, Everton and Brighton have much smaller chances.
There is a scenario where seven Premier League teams could qualify for the Champions League.
Should Liverpool win the Champions League and Aston Villa win the Europa League – and then both teams finish outside the top five – then England could have seven teams in the Champions League.
For example, that scenario could look like:
3rd: Manchester United
4th: Chelsea
5th: Brentford
6th Aston Villa (Europa League winners)
7th: Liverpool (Champions League winners)
All the above teams would be in the Champions League, alongside the top two teams in Arsenal and Man City.
